I am an Economist at Banca d'Italia, Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research. My research focuses on business cycle dynamics, international macroeconomics, monetary policy, and open economy macroeconomics.
I hold a PhD in Economics and Finance from Bocconi University.
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Jun 2026"Asymmetric monetary policy transmission across euro-area manufacturing industries" (with Tiziano Ropele) is now available as a working paper.
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Sep 2026Presenting "Asymmetric Monetary Policy Transmission Across Euro Area Manufacturing Industries" (with Tiziano Ropele) at the 6th Sailing the Macro Workshop.
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Sep 2026Discussing "Inflation Composition and Monetary Stabilization" by Andreolli, Rickard, Surico and Vergeat (2026) at the 6th Oxford/Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Bank of England Monetary Economics Conference.
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Working Paper Temi di discussione 1535, Banca d'Italia, 2026We study the asymmetric transmission of monetary policy shocks on euro-area manufacturing output and producer prices using monthly data from 2003 to 2024. Employing externally identified monetary policy shocks and nonlinear local projections, we show that contractionary policy actions generate large and persistent declines in output and prices, while expansionary shocks have weaker effects. These asymmetries are common across manufacturing industries and quantitatively important, with the contribution of monetary policy to forecast error variance driven primarily by contractionary shocks. We further show that the effects of monetary tightening are amplified in industries with greater financial fragility and stronger exposure to interest-sensitive demand.
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Working Paper Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 933, Banca d'Italia, 2025Using data from Banca d'Italia's Conjunctural Survey on Italian Households, this paper documents the extent to which households' inflation and consumption expectations respond to information about current inflation at different stages of its cycle. Households that are informed about the current level of inflation revise their expectations of future price growth upwards when inflation is rising and downwards when it is falling. Being informed also affects consumption expectations: knowledge of high inflation dampens expected spending, while low inflation encourages it, especially among the less affluent.
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Working Paper Temi di discussione 1493, Banca d'Italia, 2025This paper analyses the impact of shocks to global risk aversion on the term structure of sovereign spreads between emerging market economies (EMEs) and the United States. Focusing on the difference between long- and short-term spreads (the term premium gap), it finds that an increase in global risk aversion reduces the term premium gap. This finding is consistent with the evidence that during crises EMEs experience a higher risk of default with respect to safe advanced economies, and more strongly so at shorter maturities.
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Working Paper Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 902, Banca d'Italia, 2024This paper studies the trends of the German manufacturing sector in recent years, highlighting the factors that have weighed more heavily there than in the rest of the euro area. An econometric analysis allows assessment of the spillovers from German industry to the manufacturing sectors of other major euro area economies. Higher gas prices penalized German energy-intensive firms more owing to the greater reliance on gas of the German chemical sector. The impact of weak global demand was stronger in Germany due to its higher trade openness. The automotive industry, which has been declining since 2018, accounts for a larger share of manufacturing in Germany than in the euro area. Shocks to German industry exert a significant influence on the manufacturing sector of other main euro area economies, especially Italy.
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Working Paper Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 781, Banca d'Italia, 2023This study analyses the impact of energy price increases and of shortages in the supply of inputs on producer prices and production in the Italian industrial sector since 2021. It constructs price and production indices based on the energy intensity of different subsectors and examines the indications from the Bank of Italy's Business Outlook Survey of Industrial and Service Firms. Since the beginning of 2021, producer prices of industrial goods have grown more in energy-intensive sectors than in non-energy-intensive sectors, although trends in industrial production only began to differ between the two groups from the spring of 2022.
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Working Paper Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 664, Banca d'Italia, 2021This work introduces an econometric model to predict the short-term evolution of Italian GDP, combining macroeconomic variables with information on the course of the pandemic. The inclusion of a highly sophisticated epidemiological module in a dynamic macroeconomic factor model delivers both accurate estimates during the pandemic and economic growth scenarios based on different simulated trajectories of the epidemic. The results show that the model's predictive ability in the period between August 2020 and March 2021 is higher than what would be obtained by not explicitly accounting for pandemic variables.
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Published Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 8, 2026This paper revisits recent dynamics in the household saving rate across euro area countries, examining the macroeconomic and structural drivers behind saving behaviour in the aftermath of the pandemic and the energy price shock.
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Published Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159, 2025This paper estimates the response of domestic inflation to a US interest rate shock in a sample of 27 emerging economies, using local projection methods. The sign of the inflation response crucially depends on the monetary policy framework: after a US monetary policy tightening, inflation decreases in peggers; inflation increases in floaters that do not target inflation; the inflation response is not statistically different from zero in floaters committed to an inflation target. These outcomes are rationalized using a standard DSGE model, which also shows that pegging the exchange rate yields larger welfare losses compared to the other two frameworks, even assuming dominant currency pricing.
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Published Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148, 2024This paper analyses exchange rate pass-through in small, open, commodity-exporting economies, taking Canada as a case study. The pass-through is estimated conditional on commodity shocks and compared with a standard approach, showing that the sign changes drastically across frameworks for consumer prices. The commodity-conditional approach yields a positive pass-through — a positive co-movement between exchange rate appreciation and consumer price inflation — while standard models find a negative pass-through. This is explained by Canada's commodity-exporter characteristics: shocks that raise commodity demand cause currency appreciation and domestically inflationary effects through higher commodity prices.
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TA for Advanced Macroeconomics (MA)By Luca Sala and Tommaso Monacelli
"No man can fully grasp how far and how fast we have come, but condense, if you will, the 50,000 years of man's recorded history in a time span of but a half-century. Stated in these terms, we know very little about the first 40 years, except at the end of them advanced man had learned to use the skins of animals to cover them.
Then about 10 years ago, under this standard, man emerged from his caves to construct other kinds of shelter. Only five years ago man learned to write and use a cart with wheels. Christianity began less than two years ago. The printing press came this year, and then less than two months ago, during this whole 50-year span of human history, the steam engine provided a new source of power.
Newton explored the meaning of gravity. Last month electric lights and telephones and automobiles and airplanes became available. Only last week did we develop penicillin and television and nuclear power, and now if America's new spacecraft succeeds in reaching Venus, we will have literally reached the stars before midnight tonight."
"We are taking the sign out of the window. The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn it. Nostalgia is not a strategy. But from the fracture, we can build something better, stronger, and more just.
This is the task of the middle powers, who have the most to lose from a world of fortresses and the most to gain from a world of genuine cooperation. The powerful have their power. But we have something too — the capacity to stop pretending, to name reality, to build our strength at home, and to act together.
That is Canada's path. We choose it openly and confidently. And it is a path wide open to any country willing to take it with us."